Grain > Commentary > 6-11-2024

6/11/2024

Jun 11, 2024

The markets continue in a choppy, sideways grind. The weekly crop progress report didn't provide the long or short positions much to trade on. Corn was reported at 95% planted and soybeans at 87% planted. Crop conditions showed corn -1 point from last week to 74% good/excellent. Soybean crop ratings debuted at 72% good/excellent. The USDA made an 8 a.m. sale announcement this morning for 104,000 tonnes of soybeans to China in 2023/24. Tomorrow we will get our June installment of the WASDE report. Trade is expected the USDA to make another round of small cuts to the forecasted South America corn and soybean production. No big changes are foreseen on the U.S. crop balance sheets and trade expects ending stocks estimates to remain virtually unchanged. We may not get much to shake managed money and spec funds out of a portion of their short positions.

The window is closing for the seasonal trend higher in Dec corn but Nov soybeans typically print their seasonal high in July giving us time to work back towards the top side of our established trading range. Nearest new crop sale target remains in place at $11.00

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.