Grain > Commentary > 6-10-2024

6/10/2024

Jun 10, 2024

Corn and soybeans ignore some sharply lower trade in wheat and enjoyed a solid, steady day with decent gains.  We briefly traded lower after the 8:30am re-opening but we bounced out of the red quickly.  Weekly export inspections were all within their expected ranges.  Corn was at the high end with 1.340 mln tonnes shipped and soybeans were on the low side at 231k tonnes shipped.  We have had a solid reset on the market and our "planting delay" is now priced out.  Longer term forecasts show above-average temperatures expected through the end of June.  Combine that with some big question marks on acres and yield changes in USDA reports over the next 5 weeks means trade could be comfortable adding some risk premium to the market.  Do we go back to challenge the highs?  There's always that possibility but routine/slow demand is going to keep a cap on the market.  Truthfully, we need a supply issue to materialize to spark a real rally.  As of right now, conditions are good enough globally to keep the world well supplied with grain.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.