Grain > Commentary > 6-10-2022

6/10/2022

Jun 10, 2022

6/10/2022
Not too much excitement in this month's WASDE report but a surprising finish on the board given the fresh information.  The USDA maybe gave us the first sign of demand destruction in corn (high prices cure high prices) with a 50 million bushel cut to this year's corn export estimate.  Results overall were a net increase of 45 million bushels to this year's ending stocks.  Soybean exports were increased 30 million bushels which was also the net change in this year's ending stocks.  This was slightly friendly compared to the pre-report trade estimates.  The doom and gloom over the soybean crop in South America is all but over, the USDA added approximately 80 million bushels to their S.A. production estimates for this year.
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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.