6/10/2021

With the numbers reported by CONAB and the USDA today, the corn bulls get what they have been looking for.  Markets were two-sided over night and firmed higher going into the coffee break which is when Brazil's CONAB released their updated corn production number, slashing it from the previous month by 10 mmt to 96 mmt.  The USDA also trimmed their Brazil corn production forecast by 3.5 mmt to 98.5 mmt.  The corn bulls were fed a second helping today when the USDA also cut the US corn ending stocks number by 150 million bushels from the May report, to 1.107 bln bushels.  Today's report effectively put to bed any type of bullish story for old crop soybeans with the USDA increasing the soybean ending stocks number to 135 mln bushels, a 15 mln bushel increase from the May report.  USDA and CONAB both showed slight increases to the Brazil soybean crop.  This also sent the new crop soybeans trading lower as an immediate reaction to the report release until managed money began rolling their long positions to the new crop, to further tighten the old/new crop spread and give us our mixed close on the day.  The countdown is now on to the quarterly grain stocks and planted acres reports at the end month, giving us only 14 trading days before another fresh set of fundamentals.  All eyes will be on corn acres and yield (did beans lose acres since the initial planting report?).  Locally it looks like we have a real chance at some much appreciated, amountable rain early tomorrow.