6/1/2022

Jun 01, 2022


6/1/2022
Corn has gone into major reversal mode, with July corn breaking hard below its 50-day moving average over the past two trading days.  Our next major support levels are the 100-day moving average, which sits below at 712'6, and the major lows from the second half of March in the 695 area.  After edging out the record July contract high one month ago, corn has trended lower for 5 consecutive weeks.  We have likely seen the July corn high for this year.  Soybeans performed a hard bearish reversal yesterday.  Most significant would be the November contract which set a contract high in the early hours yesterday at 1560'4 and finished around 50 cents off that mark.  Soybeans were able to hold in the green through midday but were trading 15-20 cents off the intraday highs, and finished modestly higher on the day.  The price action in corn was mirrored, with trade ending the day around 10 cents off of the lows.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of beans to China, split 50/50 between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing year.  Yesterday's planting progress update was a dark cloud over anyone bullish corn and soybeans.  This week's report showed corn and soybean planting within 1% of the 5-year average and there was likely much more planted in the previous weeks that was not reflected in the report.
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.