6/1/2022

Jun 01, 2022


6/1/2022
Corn has gone into major reversal mode, with July corn breaking hard below its 50-day moving average over the past two trading days.  Our next major support levels are the 100-day moving average, which sits below at 712'6, and the major lows from the second half of March in the 695 area.  After edging out the record July contract high one month ago, corn has trended lower for 5 consecutive weeks.  We have likely seen the July corn high for this year.  Soybeans performed a hard bearish reversal yesterday.  Most significant would be the November contract which set a contract high in the early hours yesterday at 1560'4 and finished around 50 cents off that mark.  Soybeans were able to hold in the green through midday but were trading 15-20 cents off the intraday highs, and finished modestly higher on the day.  The price action in corn was mirrored, with trade ending the day around 10 cents off of the lows.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of beans to China, split 50/50 between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing year.  Yesterday's planting progress update was a dark cloud over anyone bullish corn and soybeans.  This week's report showed corn and soybean planting within 1% of the 5-year average and there was likely much more planted in the previous weeks that was not reflected in the report.
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.