6/1/2022

Jun 01, 2022


6/1/2022
Corn has gone into major reversal mode, with July corn breaking hard below its 50-day moving average over the past two trading days.  Our next major support levels are the 100-day moving average, which sits below at 712'6, and the major lows from the second half of March in the 695 area.  After edging out the record July contract high one month ago, corn has trended lower for 5 consecutive weeks.  We have likely seen the July corn high for this year.  Soybeans performed a hard bearish reversal yesterday.  Most significant would be the November contract which set a contract high in the early hours yesterday at 1560'4 and finished around 50 cents off that mark.  Soybeans were able to hold in the green through midday but were trading 15-20 cents off the intraday highs, and finished modestly higher on the day.  The price action in corn was mirrored, with trade ending the day around 10 cents off of the lows.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tonnes of beans to China, split 50/50 between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing year.  Yesterday's planting progress update was a dark cloud over anyone bullish corn and soybeans.  This week's report showed corn and soybean planting within 1% of the 5-year average and there was likely much more planted in the previous weeks that was not reflected in the report.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.