Grain > Commentary > 5-9-2024

5/9/2024

May 09, 2024

Markets were steady-higher through the overnight session until the East coast crowd came online at 8 a.m. their time. Corn and soybeans quickly flipped to the red and headed into the coffee break lower where they spent the remainder of Thursday. Soybeans felt it the most, giving up another 13-19 cents on the day. We're still well above the starting point of the rally on soybeans with potential support at moving averages and the 1200 handle below the current price levels. Just some basic technical analysis says corn has pulled back off of nearest highs far enough. Trade is expecting the USDA to print some unfriendly 2024/25 crop numbers in tomorrow's report. We will likely see the 181-corn yield remain unchanged. Overall, the past two sessions feel like trade is just trying to get out in front of a report that’s expected to be bearish and we can say a lot of the expected bearishness is priced in at this point. The USDA did announce a small export sale this morning for 132,080 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years.

4 week drought monitor comparison. Some notable improvement across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

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3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...