Grain > Commentary > 5-9-2024

5/9/2024

May 09, 2024

Markets were steady-higher through the overnight session until the East coast crowd came online at 8 a.m. their time. Corn and soybeans quickly flipped to the red and headed into the coffee break lower where they spent the remainder of Thursday. Soybeans felt it the most, giving up another 13-19 cents on the day. We're still well above the starting point of the rally on soybeans with potential support at moving averages and the 1200 handle below the current price levels. Just some basic technical analysis says corn has pulled back off of nearest highs far enough. Trade is expecting the USDA to print some unfriendly 2024/25 crop numbers in tomorrow's report. We will likely see the 181-corn yield remain unchanged. Overall, the past two sessions feel like trade is just trying to get out in front of a report that’s expected to be bearish and we can say a lot of the expected bearishness is priced in at this point. The USDA did announce a small export sale this morning for 132,080 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years.

4 week drought monitor comparison. Some notable improvement across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.