Grain > Commentary > 5-9-2024

5/9/2024

May 09, 2024

Markets were steady-higher through the overnight session until the East coast crowd came online at 8 a.m. their time. Corn and soybeans quickly flipped to the red and headed into the coffee break lower where they spent the remainder of Thursday. Soybeans felt it the most, giving up another 13-19 cents on the day. We're still well above the starting point of the rally on soybeans with potential support at moving averages and the 1200 handle below the current price levels. Just some basic technical analysis says corn has pulled back off of nearest highs far enough. Trade is expecting the USDA to print some unfriendly 2024/25 crop numbers in tomorrow's report. We will likely see the 181-corn yield remain unchanged. Overall, the past two sessions feel like trade is just trying to get out in front of a report that’s expected to be bearish and we can say a lot of the expected bearishness is priced in at this point. The USDA did announce a small export sale this morning for 132,080 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years.

4 week drought monitor comparison. Some notable improvement across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.