5/9/2022

May 09, 2022


5/9/2022
"Risk off" was the theme across multiple market spaces today.  The DOW and NASDAQ Indices were down hard in the 400–500-point ranges and virtually all commodities were deep in the red.  Soybeans managed some slightly higher trade at the 7 p.m. open but most corn months were not able to even trade at unchanged.  Wheat was sharply higher overnight and early in the day session but reversed hard before the midday point.  Most finished lower and 30-40 cents off of the daily highs.  Soybean meal, soy oil, oats, and crude oil all saw big losses on the day.  This pullback in grains is best described as seasonal and we're likely entering a pattern of selling into rallies as the best move.  Weekly export inspections totaled 1.393 million tonnes of corn and 503k tonnes of soybeans last week.  Current shipment pace for corn exceeds the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 37 million bushels, the shipment pace for soybeans falls short by 27 million bushels.  The USDA will release its May WASDE report this Thursday at 11 a.m.  This will be the first report that includes supply and demand figures for this year's U.S. corn and soybean crops.  Will we see updated acres?  Where will the USDA set our initial yield?  Those are two of the major questions that will get answered on Thursday.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.