Grain > Commentary > 5-8-2024

5/8/2024

May 08, 2024

Corn and soybeans were lower on Wednesday with corn down 5-8 cents and soybeans giving back 12-19.  The previous 5 days gave our futures a rally we have been waiting for since late February and pull-backs like these are necessary to keep markets healthy and long-term trends intact.  Our rally was triggered by weather stories in the U.S. and South America that forced the funds to offset large chunks of their short position.  Now, the U.S. appears to be getting a solid window for field work that opens up at the end of this week and carries well into next week.  On Friday, we will get the May WASDE report from the USDA and we will get our first look at supply and demand numbers for the 2024 crop.  Trade estimates average the 2024/25 ending stocks at 2.284 billion bushels of corn carryout and 431 million bushels of soybeans.  For corn, that estimate is "close enough" to the current year carryout to not shock the market too much but the 27% increase in soybean ending stocks is not friendly.

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.