Grain > Commentary > 5-8-2024

5/8/2024

May 08, 2024

Corn and soybeans were lower on Wednesday with corn down 5-8 cents and soybeans giving back 12-19.  The previous 5 days gave our futures a rally we have been waiting for since late February and pull-backs like these are necessary to keep markets healthy and long-term trends intact.  Our rally was triggered by weather stories in the U.S. and South America that forced the funds to offset large chunks of their short position.  Now, the U.S. appears to be getting a solid window for field work that opens up at the end of this week and carries well into next week.  On Friday, we will get the May WASDE report from the USDA and we will get our first look at supply and demand numbers for the 2024 crop.  Trade estimates average the 2024/25 ending stocks at 2.284 billion bushels of corn carryout and 431 million bushels of soybeans.  For corn, that estimate is "close enough" to the current year carryout to not shock the market too much but the 27% increase in soybean ending stocks is not friendly.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.