Grain > Commentary > 5-8-2024

5/8/2024

May 08, 2024

Corn and soybeans were lower on Wednesday with corn down 5-8 cents and soybeans giving back 12-19.  The previous 5 days gave our futures a rally we have been waiting for since late February and pull-backs like these are necessary to keep markets healthy and long-term trends intact.  Our rally was triggered by weather stories in the U.S. and South America that forced the funds to offset large chunks of their short position.  Now, the U.S. appears to be getting a solid window for field work that opens up at the end of this week and carries well into next week.  On Friday, we will get the May WASDE report from the USDA and we will get our first look at supply and demand numbers for the 2024 crop.  Trade estimates average the 2024/25 ending stocks at 2.284 billion bushels of corn carryout and 431 million bushels of soybeans.  For corn, that estimate is "close enough" to the current year carryout to not shock the market too much but the 27% increase in soybean ending stocks is not friendly.

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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.