5/8/2023

May 08, 2023


A mostly uneventful day for corn and soybeans. Trade was higher overnight but had faded back to two-sided by sunrise. Corn managed to finish unchanged on the July contract but ended the day 4-5 cents lower from September on out. Soybeans were down 2-8 cents. Wheat looked like it was going to enjoy some large gains today with some 20 cent higher trade but had some mixed looks by mid-day. Regardless, I think we can determine that wheat lent some support to keep corn and soybeans from drifting too far into the red today. Weekly export inspections continue to be inconsistent for corn. After last week's solid showing, corn was a miss to the low side with 963k tonnnes shipped last week. Soybean shipments were vanilla at 395k tonnes but that is average volume for this time of year. We only have about 1/3 of the marketing year remaining. With corn export inspections and sales lagging well behind the pace needed to meet the USDA's forecast, how will they approach their demand numbers? Corn use for ethanol is also well behind its forecasted number. We may get some answers in Friday's report.

Trade estimates for this week’s crop progress report.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.