5/8/2023

May 08, 2023


A mostly uneventful day for corn and soybeans. Trade was higher overnight but had faded back to two-sided by sunrise. Corn managed to finish unchanged on the July contract but ended the day 4-5 cents lower from September on out. Soybeans were down 2-8 cents. Wheat looked like it was going to enjoy some large gains today with some 20 cent higher trade but had some mixed looks by mid-day. Regardless, I think we can determine that wheat lent some support to keep corn and soybeans from drifting too far into the red today. Weekly export inspections continue to be inconsistent for corn. After last week's solid showing, corn was a miss to the low side with 963k tonnnes shipped last week. Soybean shipments were vanilla at 395k tonnes but that is average volume for this time of year. We only have about 1/3 of the marketing year remaining. With corn export inspections and sales lagging well behind the pace needed to meet the USDA's forecast, how will they approach their demand numbers? Corn use for ethanol is also well behind its forecasted number. We may get some answers in Friday's report.

Trade estimates for this week’s crop progress report.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.