5/7/2024

Corn and soybeans take a breather after setting fresh highs for the move on Tuesday. It’s been an impressive run over the past 5 sessions with corn trading a 30-cent range and holding a 20-cent gain over that time period. July soybeans have traded a one-dollar range, netting a 90-cent gain over the same 5 days. Cash/new crop/HTA sales targets updates: July (477'0) corn and December (496'0) corn targets were within 5 cents today; new crop soybeans entered the target area today with $11.50 new crop soybeans achieved. New target for new crop is the gap on November at $12.44. Fill cash soybeans between 12.80-12.90 futures. Export inspections were on the high side of expectations for corn and soybeans last week. Corn shipments totaled 1.286 mln tonnes and soybean shipments were reported at 349k tonnes. The rally is caused by the funds off-setting a large chunk of their near-record short positions, the weather story in South America and the U.S. is just the trigger. The farmer has engaged heavily and the expected weakening on corn basis has begun. We can't even begin to count the number of growers we've been in touch with over the past week but weather markets only last as long as the weather. Keep targets in place for old crop and make sure to be selling new crop along with it.

As mentioned before, $11.50 new crop soybeans was a target and we ended the day a few cents above that. We are now looking at the area where the 62% retracement lines up with a gap on the chart. This is a large, 7-cent gap from 1237-1244. The 200-day moving average also lurks just above us at 1233.