5/7/2024

May 07, 2024


Corn and soybeans take a breather after setting fresh highs for the move on Tuesday. It’s been an impressive run over the past 5 sessions with corn trading a 30-cent range and holding a 20-cent gain over that time period. July soybeans have traded a one-dollar range, netting a 90-cent gain over the same 5 days. Cash/new crop/HTA sales targets updates: July (477'0) corn and December (496'0) corn targets were within 5 cents today; new crop soybeans entered the target area today with $11.50 new crop soybeans achieved. New target for new crop is the gap on November at $12.44. Fill cash soybeans between 12.80-12.90 futures. Export inspections were on the high side of expectations for corn and soybeans last week. Corn shipments totaled 1.286 mln tonnes and soybean shipments were reported at 349k tonnes. The rally is caused by the funds off-setting a large chunk of their near-record short positions, the weather story in South America and the U.S. is just the trigger. The farmer has engaged heavily and the expected weakening on corn basis has begun. We can't even begin to count the number of growers we've been in touch with over the past week but weather markets only last as long as the weather. Keep targets in place for old crop and make sure to be selling new crop along with it.

As mentioned before, $11.50 new crop soybeans was a target and we ended the day a few cents above that. We are now looking at the area where the 62% retracement lines up with a gap on the chart. This is a large, 7-cent gap from 1237-1244. The 200-day moving average also lurks just above us at 1233.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.