Grain > Commentary > 5/6/2022

5/6/2022

May 06, 2022

Corn and soybeans lower from the start overnight on a sell-off in Chicago spurred into action by good weather across the grain belt. There are more and more wheels turning each day and more corn going into the ground, we're likely not as late as the market wanted to think. The federal crop insurance dates are shouldn't be considered as your official start to planting season; mother nature decides that for us, not some arbitrary day decided by the suits in D.C. In my opinion, this week's market action overall is best explained as seasonal planting pressure. We've rallied hard since harvest lows and really have not had a solid correction of any kind in our grains. The USDA made no 8 a.m. sales announcements this week but if we do see a sharp price break on the board, I wouldn't be surprised to see another large sale announcement this month. This is the first week since late December that the USDA did not make any sale announcements. Wheat has worked against the grain most of this week, helping support corn and soybeans. We saw 20-40 cent ranges across the different classes of wheat today but trade settled back near unchanged, likely keeping corn and soybeans buoyed lower on the day. Forecasts show a fast warm up and the real possibility of a solid window for field work if rain is minimal.

July corn finished the week about 40 cents off the contract high set last week. While that seems like a lot, current values widely out-pace our current trend. Using our major July corn low from late April 2020, the July corn contract could trade in the 6.60-6.80 range and our long term trend higher would remain intact.
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