5/5/2023

May 05, 2023


Gains across most markets today with corn and soybeans trading higher in solid fashion to end the week.  Corn was consistent in setting intraday highs throughout the session while soybeans traded steady in the range of 6-18 cents higher, closing just a penny or two under today's highs.  Once again, wheat lead the charge, finishing the day with double digit gains of 15-34 cents.  The funds and managed money had positioned themselves net short and it appears they maybe got squeezed out of their own position.  None the less, it’s nice to see some positive trade.  Seasonally, we should see the Dec corn contract rally going into June and Nov soybeans rally going into July.  There are already some serious drought and soil moisture concerns in Eastern Nebraska.  If we are able to turn this into a weather market (again), we could be seeing the beginning of a sustained rally.  Forecasts continue to show a mostly wide-open window for planting and I expect Monday's progress report will likely see our largest percentage increase in planting completion so far for the year.

Looks like we are set up nicely for a correction that will fall in line with the seasonal trends.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.