5/5/2023

May 05, 2023


Gains across most markets today with corn and soybeans trading higher in solid fashion to end the week.  Corn was consistent in setting intraday highs throughout the session while soybeans traded steady in the range of 6-18 cents higher, closing just a penny or two under today's highs.  Once again, wheat lead the charge, finishing the day with double digit gains of 15-34 cents.  The funds and managed money had positioned themselves net short and it appears they maybe got squeezed out of their own position.  None the less, it’s nice to see some positive trade.  Seasonally, we should see the Dec corn contract rally going into June and Nov soybeans rally going into July.  There are already some serious drought and soil moisture concerns in Eastern Nebraska.  If we are able to turn this into a weather market (again), we could be seeing the beginning of a sustained rally.  Forecasts continue to show a mostly wide-open window for planting and I expect Monday's progress report will likely see our largest percentage increase in planting completion so far for the year.

Looks like we are set up nicely for a correction that will fall in line with the seasonal trends.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.