5/5/2023

May 05, 2023


Gains across most markets today with corn and soybeans trading higher in solid fashion to end the week.  Corn was consistent in setting intraday highs throughout the session while soybeans traded steady in the range of 6-18 cents higher, closing just a penny or two under today's highs.  Once again, wheat lead the charge, finishing the day with double digit gains of 15-34 cents.  The funds and managed money had positioned themselves net short and it appears they maybe got squeezed out of their own position.  None the less, it’s nice to see some positive trade.  Seasonally, we should see the Dec corn contract rally going into June and Nov soybeans rally going into July.  There are already some serious drought and soil moisture concerns in Eastern Nebraska.  If we are able to turn this into a weather market (again), we could be seeing the beginning of a sustained rally.  Forecasts continue to show a mostly wide-open window for planting and I expect Monday's progress report will likely see our largest percentage increase in planting completion so far for the year.

Looks like we are set up nicely for a correction that will fall in line with the seasonal trends.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.