5/5/2022

May 05, 2022


5/5/2022
Large, double-digit moves higher in wheat resulted in spillover support for corn and soybeans.  Soybeans traded 20-27 higher on the day but finished well off of their highs, being brought back down to earth by the soy oil and meal trade.  Weekly export sales for corn were on target with 783k tonnes of old crop and 738k tonnes of new crop sold last week.  Old crop soybean sales outperformed estimates with 735k tonnes sold and new crop soybean sales were within range with 407k tonnes sold.  Total soybean sales exceed the amount necessary to meet the USDA forecast but it still needs to be shipped.  There were no 8 a.m. announcements from the USDA this morning.  The big move in wheat today was driven by poor crop ratings, delayed seeding of spring wheat, and problems with wheat exports and production in India.  Overall, it's more about RISK to wheat production than actual issues. 
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.