5/5/2022

May 05, 2022


5/5/2022
Large, double-digit moves higher in wheat resulted in spillover support for corn and soybeans.  Soybeans traded 20-27 higher on the day but finished well off of their highs, being brought back down to earth by the soy oil and meal trade.  Weekly export sales for corn were on target with 783k tonnes of old crop and 738k tonnes of new crop sold last week.  Old crop soybean sales outperformed estimates with 735k tonnes sold and new crop soybean sales were within range with 407k tonnes sold.  Total soybean sales exceed the amount necessary to meet the USDA forecast but it still needs to be shipped.  There were no 8 a.m. announcements from the USDA this morning.  The big move in wheat today was driven by poor crop ratings, delayed seeding of spring wheat, and problems with wheat exports and production in India.  Overall, it's more about RISK to wheat production than actual issues. 
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.