5/4/2023

May 04, 2023


While today's trade may look negative on the surface, the lower price action in corn and soybeans was a healthy pull back after Wednesday's solid gains.  Wheat enjoyed modest gains while corn and soybeans made nice recoveries off of their lows and then traded steady.  We did see a couple of the front contracts flip green later in the session.  The weekly export sales report gave us another warning shot on corn demand.  For the first time in over 20 years, the month of April had a week of net cancellations for corn with 316k tonnes net canceled last week.  Soybean sales were within expectations at 290k tonnes sold.  With the May installment of the USDA WASDE due out next Friday, it will be interesting to see how the USDA handles the current state of corn demand.  It's no secret China is purchasing corn from Brazil who has a readily available supply.  The current state of Brazil's safrinha crop also remains a non-issue with conditions mostly ideal for the past 5 months.  In terms of marketing advice, the Dec:Mar corn spread has been giving us opportunities to roll at 10 cent premiums.  If you have HTAs on for December, not a bad place to start!
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.