Grain > Commentary > 5-4-2023

5/4/2023

May 04, 2023

While today's trade may look negative on the surface, the lower price action in corn and soybeans was a healthy pull back after Wednesday's solid gains.  Wheat enjoyed modest gains while corn and soybeans made nice recoveries off of their lows and then traded steady.  We did see a couple of the front contracts flip green later in the session.  The weekly export sales report gave us another warning shot on corn demand.  For the first time in over 20 years, the month of April had a week of net cancellations for corn with 316k tonnes net canceled last week.  Soybean sales were within expectations at 290k tonnes sold.  With the May installment of the USDA WASDE due out next Friday, it will be interesting to see how the USDA handles the current state of corn demand.  It's no secret China is purchasing corn from Brazil who has a readily available supply.  The current state of Brazil's safrinha crop also remains a non-issue with conditions mostly ideal for the past 5 months.  In terms of marketing advice, the Dec:Mar corn spread has been giving us opportunities to roll at 10 cent premiums.  If you have HTAs on for December, not a bad place to start!
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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.