5/4/2022

Strength in crude oil translated into strength in soy oil, and soybeans followed suit.  Corn tried to capitalized on the double-digit move higher in wheat but, just like earlier this week, overnight strength quickly faded after the 8:30am re-open.  Corn traded lower for most of the day but somehow willed itself at the end to finish 1-2 higher.  Wheat's big move came after a report that India would limit wheat exports but finished well off of the daily highs after an updated headline stating India had no plans to do this.  Anymore, this was just another average day in the commodity trade.  The USDA wire was quiet again this morning with no 8 a.m. sale announcement.  Weekly ethanol numbers were slightly friendly with output up 6,000 barrels/day to 969,000 bpd and stocks off 78,000 barrels to 23.89 million bbls, suggesting an increase in implied usage.  Locally, we have real potential for a sizeable window for field work given the current 10-day forecast.  We do have some wheels beginning to turn in the area today and the amount of action will only increase as the days go by.  Considering how fast conditions will improve here, you have to assume the same for a majority of the grain belt.  We will likely see some big increases in the planting percentage for corn over the next two weeks.  The WASDE reports over the next few months will also be important to see if this spring's high prices have resulted in lower demand.

Potential double top on July corn? Possible, but not likely.