Grain > Commentary > 5-4-2021

5/4/2021

May 04, 2021

5/4/2021
Corn surged higher again, setting a new high on the July contract at 704 late in the day but was unable to close above the 700 level.  Markets were stronger overnight and there was a buying spree at the 8:30 open, this was immediately met with profit taking until the monthly export numbers came in.  The monthly US corn exports recorded an all-time record of 9.47 million tonnes (373 mln bushels) in March, shattering the old record of 7.75 mln tonnes set in May, 2018.  Also providing significant support today was ethanol exports for March, where the USA shipped 48.3 mln gal to China, nearly tying the all-time record from April, 2016.  Soybean trade continues to find strength from the soybean oil market, which has been consistently setting futures contracts highs for the past 3 weeks.  Our updated planting progress numbers late yesterday showed corn plantings vaulting way ahead of the 36% 5-year average, to 46% complete (48% last year, 17% week ago).  Soybean planting also made a sizable leap, from 8% last week to 24% complete this week (21% last year, 11% average).  Locally, there are some early planted sugar beets being replanted.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.