5/4/2021

May 04, 2021


5/4/2021
Corn surged higher again, setting a new high on the July contract at 704 late in the day but was unable to close above the 700 level.  Markets were stronger overnight and there was a buying spree at the 8:30 open, this was immediately met with profit taking until the monthly export numbers came in.  The monthly US corn exports recorded an all-time record of 9.47 million tonnes (373 mln bushels) in March, shattering the old record of 7.75 mln tonnes set in May, 2018.  Also providing significant support today was ethanol exports for March, where the USA shipped 48.3 mln gal to China, nearly tying the all-time record from April, 2016.  Soybean trade continues to find strength from the soybean oil market, which has been consistently setting futures contracts highs for the past 3 weeks.  Our updated planting progress numbers late yesterday showed corn plantings vaulting way ahead of the 36% 5-year average, to 46% complete (48% last year, 17% week ago).  Soybean planting also made a sizable leap, from 8% last week to 24% complete this week (21% last year, 11% average).  Locally, there are some early planted sugar beets being replanted.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.