Grain > Commentary > 5-4-2021

5/4/2021

May 04, 2021

5/4/2021
Corn surged higher again, setting a new high on the July contract at 704 late in the day but was unable to close above the 700 level.  Markets were stronger overnight and there was a buying spree at the 8:30 open, this was immediately met with profit taking until the monthly export numbers came in.  The monthly US corn exports recorded an all-time record of 9.47 million tonnes (373 mln bushels) in March, shattering the old record of 7.75 mln tonnes set in May, 2018.  Also providing significant support today was ethanol exports for March, where the USA shipped 48.3 mln gal to China, nearly tying the all-time record from April, 2016.  Soybean trade continues to find strength from the soybean oil market, which has been consistently setting futures contracts highs for the past 3 weeks.  Our updated planting progress numbers late yesterday showed corn plantings vaulting way ahead of the 36% 5-year average, to 46% complete (48% last year, 17% week ago).  Soybean planting also made a sizable leap, from 8% last week to 24% complete this week (21% last year, 11% average).  Locally, there are some early planted sugar beets being replanted.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.