5/31/2024

May 31, 2024


The markets showed some promise during the overnight session with corn trading steady 3-5 cents higher and soybeans hanging around 11-14 cents higher.  Any signs of life were sucked out of the market with another dull weekly export sales report.  Everything was reported within their expected ranges with 810k tonnes of old crop corn and 329k tonnes of old crop beans sold.  New crop sales totaled 188k tonnes of corn but only 7k tonnes of soybeans.  Over the past 10 years, the USDA's target for new crop soybean sales averages 10% covered.  Today we sit at only 1.9% covered, the lowest percentage since 2001/02.  Price action was also dictated today with month end covering from managed money and spec funds.  Monday could be a different story.  For the month of May, July corn futures were virtually unchanged and July soybeans gained 44 cents.  The monthly move for December corn was down 2 cents and November soybeans picked up 28 cents.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.