Grain > Commentary > 5-31-2023

5/31/2023

May 31, 2023

It feels like all grains have taken a beating over the last month, but really it is just the Soybeans that took a beating.  July corn futures were actually up 9 cents on the month.  December corn futures are slightly lower down 6 cents.  The August bean futures were down $1.44 and the November futures were down $1.17.  Basis seems to be backing off a touch as of late on both corn and beans as processors switch to the August and September futures and deal with the inverse.  We have been talking about dangerous that inverse is for a long time and it has only gotten worse.  Be careful if you have old crop left at home because there is never a good ending to an inverse.  The first crop ratings were out last night and they came up with 69% good to excellent.  The average trade guess was 71%, but the market didn't react much.  It feels like we are in the middle of a weather market, but May is just too early for a significant weather trade.      

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.