5/31/2023

May 31, 2023


It feels like all grains have taken a beating over the last month, but really it is just the Soybeans that took a beating.  July corn futures were actually up 9 cents on the month.  December corn futures are slightly lower down 6 cents.  The August bean futures were down $1.44 and the November futures were down $1.17.  Basis seems to be backing off a touch as of late on both corn and beans as processors switch to the August and September futures and deal with the inverse.  We have been talking about dangerous that inverse is for a long time and it has only gotten worse.  Be careful if you have old crop left at home because there is never a good ending to an inverse.  The first crop ratings were out last night and they came up with 69% good to excellent.  The average trade guess was 71%, but the market didn't react much.  It feels like we are in the middle of a weather market, but May is just too early for a significant weather trade.      

Read More News

Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.