5/31/2023

May 31, 2023


It feels like all grains have taken a beating over the last month, but really it is just the Soybeans that took a beating.  July corn futures were actually up 9 cents on the month.  December corn futures are slightly lower down 6 cents.  The August bean futures were down $1.44 and the November futures were down $1.17.  Basis seems to be backing off a touch as of late on both corn and beans as processors switch to the August and September futures and deal with the inverse.  We have been talking about dangerous that inverse is for a long time and it has only gotten worse.  Be careful if you have old crop left at home because there is never a good ending to an inverse.  The first crop ratings were out last night and they came up with 69% good to excellent.  The average trade guess was 71%, but the market didn't react much.  It feels like we are in the middle of a weather market, but May is just too early for a significant weather trade.      

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.