Grain > Commentary > 5-30-2024

5/30/2024

May 30, 2024

There just has not been anything to help the bulls out this week. May’s rally had been leaning on U.S. planting pace and the Russian wheat story. At this point, any type of delayed planting story has been priced in and out of the market and any issues with Russian wheat supply have also been factored in. Right now, the only type of story with some potential to ignite a rally would be weather in Brazil. Analysts are watching conditions in the southern half of the country as their forecasts show some stubborn dryness but it also wasn't very long ago, we were talking about extreme flooding in the same areas. Weekly ethanol data showed production up 49,000 barrels/day to 1.068 mln bbls and stocks off 1 million barrels to 23.2 mln bbls.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.