Grain > Commentary > 5-30-2024

5/30/2024

May 30, 2024

There just has not been anything to help the bulls out this week. May’s rally had been leaning on U.S. planting pace and the Russian wheat story. At this point, any type of delayed planting story has been priced in and out of the market and any issues with Russian wheat supply have also been factored in. Right now, the only type of story with some potential to ignite a rally would be weather in Brazil. Analysts are watching conditions in the southern half of the country as their forecasts show some stubborn dryness but it also wasn't very long ago, we were talking about extreme flooding in the same areas. Weekly ethanol data showed production up 49,000 barrels/day to 1.068 mln bbls and stocks off 1 million barrels to 23.2 mln bbls.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.