Grain > Commentary > 5-30-2024

5/30/2024

May 30, 2024

There just has not been anything to help the bulls out this week. May’s rally had been leaning on U.S. planting pace and the Russian wheat story. At this point, any type of delayed planting story has been priced in and out of the market and any issues with Russian wheat supply have also been factored in. Right now, the only type of story with some potential to ignite a rally would be weather in Brazil. Analysts are watching conditions in the southern half of the country as their forecasts show some stubborn dryness but it also wasn't very long ago, we were talking about extreme flooding in the same areas. Weekly ethanol data showed production up 49,000 barrels/day to 1.068 mln bbls and stocks off 1 million barrels to 23.2 mln bbls.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.