5/30/2023

May 30, 2023


After the long weekend, corn and soybeans were in steady, two-sided trade overnight and then selling flooded in shortly after the 8:30 am opening.  Trade was essentially all about weather.  Rains materialized over the weekend, bringing some relief to the areas of western Nebraska and southwest Minnesota.  Soybeans lead the pitfall today, trading as much as 43 cents down.  The July 23 soybean contract closed below the $13 handle for the first time since January 2022.  The recent rains also pressured wheat with the front-months finishing 25-35 cents lower.  Almost like flipping a switch, new crop corn contracts bounced off of their lows when the latest weather models were released.  U.S. export inspections were within expectations and on the upper end for corn with 1.313 mln tonnes shipped.  This is the first time in our current market year that corn had consecutive weeks above 1.0 mln tonnes of inspections.  Soybeans were mid-range at 240k tonnes.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.