5/3/2023

May 03, 2023


Some incredible reversals today took corn and soybeans to some strong finishes. The price leader by far was wheat, with gains of 30-45 cents after early morning reports of a "Ukrainian drone strike" on the Kremlin. Strangely enough, security camera video footage was conveniently available almost immediately, you be the judge. Regardless of opinion on that, that market used this as a catalyst to guide grains higher. Energies and proteins spent another day in the gutter. Crude oil was down over $3/barrel most of the day, breeching the $70 level. Stocks bounced slightly and indices hovered around unchanged after the Fed announced a 25-bps rate hike, less than the expected 50-bps increase. The weekly ethanol report showed a rise in production of 9,000 barrels/day to 976,000 bpd. Stocks dropped 900,000 barrels from last week to 23.4 million barrels.

A really nice technical day for corn and soybean bulls including this Bullish Key Reversal in December corn. After printing its lowest mark in 16 months, December 23 corn rallied out of no-man’s land to close above yesterday’s high.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.