5/3/2023

May 03, 2023


Some incredible reversals today took corn and soybeans to some strong finishes. The price leader by far was wheat, with gains of 30-45 cents after early morning reports of a "Ukrainian drone strike" on the Kremlin. Strangely enough, security camera video footage was conveniently available almost immediately, you be the judge. Regardless of opinion on that, that market used this as a catalyst to guide grains higher. Energies and proteins spent another day in the gutter. Crude oil was down over $3/barrel most of the day, breeching the $70 level. Stocks bounced slightly and indices hovered around unchanged after the Fed announced a 25-bps rate hike, less than the expected 50-bps increase. The weekly ethanol report showed a rise in production of 9,000 barrels/day to 976,000 bpd. Stocks dropped 900,000 barrels from last week to 23.4 million barrels.

A really nice technical day for corn and soybean bulls including this Bullish Key Reversal in December corn. After printing its lowest mark in 16 months, December 23 corn rallied out of no-man’s land to close above yesterday’s high.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.