5/3/2022

May 03, 2022


5/3/2022
After a day of strongly lower trade, corn and soybeans received a bump of support from the weekly crop progress report and managed to trade double digits higher during the overnight session. The market strength faded as the sun rose and the sell-off resumed shortly after the morning break. Corn planting was viewed as 14% complete as of Sunday, which is 19% behind the 5-year average. Soybean planting was seen at 8% complete versus a 5-year average of 13% for this week. If corn planting progress proceeds at the average pace this week, 2022 would be the third slowest planting season in more than 25 years but 60–90-foot planters can now go 10 mph or more for nearly 24 hours/day and weather forecasts continue to improve. Staying at the current pace is extremely unlikely and pressure over the market will continue to build this week as more and more acres are covered. Also hanging over the corn bulls' heads is a potentially huge second corn crop in Brazil, which is currently seen at 92% good/excellent (on a record number of acres). So far this week, the USDA has not made an 8 a.m. export sale announcement.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.