5/3/2022

May 03, 2022


5/3/2022
After a day of strongly lower trade, corn and soybeans received a bump of support from the weekly crop progress report and managed to trade double digits higher during the overnight session. The market strength faded as the sun rose and the sell-off resumed shortly after the morning break. Corn planting was viewed as 14% complete as of Sunday, which is 19% behind the 5-year average. Soybean planting was seen at 8% complete versus a 5-year average of 13% for this week. If corn planting progress proceeds at the average pace this week, 2022 would be the third slowest planting season in more than 25 years but 60–90-foot planters can now go 10 mph or more for nearly 24 hours/day and weather forecasts continue to improve. Staying at the current pace is extremely unlikely and pressure over the market will continue to build this week as more and more acres are covered. Also hanging over the corn bulls' heads is a potentially huge second corn crop in Brazil, which is currently seen at 92% good/excellent (on a record number of acres). So far this week, the USDA has not made an 8 a.m. export sale announcement.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.