5/29/2024

May 29, 2024


Corn and soybeans down firmly for the second day in a row with a shift in the forecast that will likely provide an opportunity to clean up any acres that are left to plant in the eastern corn belt.  Also adding to the pressure in corn and beans was a weekly crop progress report showing some sizable leaps in planting completions which bring us ahead of the 5-year averages for this week.  Corn was reported at 83% planted, right in line with the trade estimate and up from 70% last week.  Soybean plantings came in at 68% complete, above the trade guess at 66% and up from 52% complete the previous week.  There are some various reports of re-plant happening and potential for some PP acres but nothing appears to be widespread or substantial at the moment.  We are also starting to see some year-over-year increases in Ukraine grain exports.  More grain available globally isn't helpful, especially after considering the U.S. export market is already suffering from a lack of demand and new crop sales have been slow to book.  We still expect to see one more good pop in the corn market over the next 30 days leading up to the planted acres report the end of June.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.