5/29/2024

May 29, 2024


Corn and soybeans down firmly for the second day in a row with a shift in the forecast that will likely provide an opportunity to clean up any acres that are left to plant in the eastern corn belt.  Also adding to the pressure in corn and beans was a weekly crop progress report showing some sizable leaps in planting completions which bring us ahead of the 5-year averages for this week.  Corn was reported at 83% planted, right in line with the trade estimate and up from 70% last week.  Soybean plantings came in at 68% complete, above the trade guess at 66% and up from 52% complete the previous week.  There are some various reports of re-plant happening and potential for some PP acres but nothing appears to be widespread or substantial at the moment.  We are also starting to see some year-over-year increases in Ukraine grain exports.  More grain available globally isn't helpful, especially after considering the U.S. export market is already suffering from a lack of demand and new crop sales have been slow to book.  We still expect to see one more good pop in the corn market over the next 30 days leading up to the planted acres report the end of June.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.