5/28/2021

May 28, 2021


5/28/2021
Some volatility and two-sided trade overnight and after the 8:30am open but markets were mostly steady throughout the day going into the long weekend.  Widespread rains across the past 2 days went largely ignored by trade and focus shifted to China's speculated old crop corn cancellations coming in much smaller than expected to spur Thursday's limit up move into gear.  Yesterday's flash sale of 152,400 tonnes of corn to unknown for the 21/22 year also helped excite the market. Brazil's corn crop has benefited from some recent rains.  We expect this knee jerk volatility in the markets to last throughout the summer.  Current 7-14 day weather outlooks look favorable for US crops and it appears that we could be in one of the best grain producing droughts in history.  Domestic corn basis is breaking and soybean basis continues to slip, as well.  Our June markets will likely be some of the most intense trade we see, yet, with a quarterly stocks grain stocks report and an updated acres numbers for corn and soybeans at the end of the month.  Mix that with some weather and the daily price limits and we could see some trading days that are even more wild than what we've seen already.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, May 31 in observance of Memorial Day.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.