5/28/2021

May 28, 2021


5/28/2021
Some volatility and two-sided trade overnight and after the 8:30am open but markets were mostly steady throughout the day going into the long weekend.  Widespread rains across the past 2 days went largely ignored by trade and focus shifted to China's speculated old crop corn cancellations coming in much smaller than expected to spur Thursday's limit up move into gear.  Yesterday's flash sale of 152,400 tonnes of corn to unknown for the 21/22 year also helped excite the market. Brazil's corn crop has benefited from some recent rains.  We expect this knee jerk volatility in the markets to last throughout the summer.  Current 7-14 day weather outlooks look favorable for US crops and it appears that we could be in one of the best grain producing droughts in history.  Domestic corn basis is breaking and soybean basis continues to slip, as well.  Our June markets will likely be some of the most intense trade we see, yet, with a quarterly stocks grain stocks report and an updated acres numbers for corn and soybeans at the end of the month.  Mix that with some weather and the daily price limits and we could see some trading days that are even more wild than what we've seen already.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, May 31 in observance of Memorial Day.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.