5/26/2022

May 26, 2022


5/26/2022
A huge buying surge in soybeans sent 2022 contracts to trade 37-56 cents higher with the board out to Sep 23 finishing in the range of 16-45 cents higher.  China rumors? Crush? Russia closing the Black Sea corridor?  No one seemed to have the answer.  Soybeans have been keying off of the strength or weakness in crude oil.  With crude nearly $4 higher on the day, that may have been part of the reason.  Whatever the case may be, we feel this is definitely a marketing opportunity to unload old crop and market some new crop.  This exciting price action comes on the same day the USDA announced that it will allow farmers to voluntarily terminate CRP contracts with no penalty in order to plant more acres.  This offer is open to farmers who are in the final year of their CRP contract.  This means potentially an additional 1.7 million acres into crop production.  Corn tried to capitalize on the sharply higher trade in soybeans but was only able to trade back to unchanged momentarily, finishing 3-7 lower on the day.  Weekly export sales for corn and soybeans left something to be desired.  Both were within range of trade estimates for old crop but at the bare minimums with 151.6k tonnes of corn and 276.8k tonnes of soybeans sold.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.