5/26/2022

May 26, 2022


5/26/2022
A huge buying surge in soybeans sent 2022 contracts to trade 37-56 cents higher with the board out to Sep 23 finishing in the range of 16-45 cents higher.  China rumors? Crush? Russia closing the Black Sea corridor?  No one seemed to have the answer.  Soybeans have been keying off of the strength or weakness in crude oil.  With crude nearly $4 higher on the day, that may have been part of the reason.  Whatever the case may be, we feel this is definitely a marketing opportunity to unload old crop and market some new crop.  This exciting price action comes on the same day the USDA announced that it will allow farmers to voluntarily terminate CRP contracts with no penalty in order to plant more acres.  This offer is open to farmers who are in the final year of their CRP contract.  This means potentially an additional 1.7 million acres into crop production.  Corn tried to capitalize on the sharply higher trade in soybeans but was only able to trade back to unchanged momentarily, finishing 3-7 lower on the day.  Weekly export sales for corn and soybeans left something to be desired.  Both were within range of trade estimates for old crop but at the bare minimums with 151.6k tonnes of corn and 276.8k tonnes of soybeans sold.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.