5/26/2022

May 26, 2022


5/26/2022
A huge buying surge in soybeans sent 2022 contracts to trade 37-56 cents higher with the board out to Sep 23 finishing in the range of 16-45 cents higher.  China rumors? Crush? Russia closing the Black Sea corridor?  No one seemed to have the answer.  Soybeans have been keying off of the strength or weakness in crude oil.  With crude nearly $4 higher on the day, that may have been part of the reason.  Whatever the case may be, we feel this is definitely a marketing opportunity to unload old crop and market some new crop.  This exciting price action comes on the same day the USDA announced that it will allow farmers to voluntarily terminate CRP contracts with no penalty in order to plant more acres.  This offer is open to farmers who are in the final year of their CRP contract.  This means potentially an additional 1.7 million acres into crop production.  Corn tried to capitalize on the sharply higher trade in soybeans but was only able to trade back to unchanged momentarily, finishing 3-7 lower on the day.  Weekly export sales for corn and soybeans left something to be desired.  Both were within range of trade estimates for old crop but at the bare minimums with 151.6k tonnes of corn and 276.8k tonnes of soybeans sold.
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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.