5/26/2022

May 26, 2022


5/26/2022
A huge buying surge in soybeans sent 2022 contracts to trade 37-56 cents higher with the board out to Sep 23 finishing in the range of 16-45 cents higher.  China rumors? Crush? Russia closing the Black Sea corridor?  No one seemed to have the answer.  Soybeans have been keying off of the strength or weakness in crude oil.  With crude nearly $4 higher on the day, that may have been part of the reason.  Whatever the case may be, we feel this is definitely a marketing opportunity to unload old crop and market some new crop.  This exciting price action comes on the same day the USDA announced that it will allow farmers to voluntarily terminate CRP contracts with no penalty in order to plant more acres.  This offer is open to farmers who are in the final year of their CRP contract.  This means potentially an additional 1.7 million acres into crop production.  Corn tried to capitalize on the sharply higher trade in soybeans but was only able to trade back to unchanged momentarily, finishing 3-7 lower on the day.  Weekly export sales for corn and soybeans left something to be desired.  Both were within range of trade estimates for old crop but at the bare minimums with 151.6k tonnes of corn and 276.8k tonnes of soybeans sold.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.