5/26/2021

May 26, 2021


5/26/2021
July corn finds some buying support around the 600 level early in the session to finish 4 higher.  December corn traded similar, with buying interest coming in around the 500 level, managing to squeeze out a nickel higher on the close.  Old crop beans were 7-8 lower and new crop months were virtually unchanged from yesterday.  Volatility was present today with corn seeing a 27-cent range and a 36-cent range in beans.  Corn trade perked up with rumors swirling of China having interest in US old crop corn but, with no bids on the PNW market, it will remain to be seen if there is any truth to it.  It genuinely feels like our market has turned from "buy the fact, sell the rumor" into "buy the rumor, sell the fact."  Remind yourself where our markets were at a year ago, how long it has taken to return to these price levels, and not to leave grain in the bin unpriced past the point the market shifts its focus to new crop.  Soybean demand continues its downtrend with end-users claiming they are very close to bridging the gap to the new crop period.  Demand for corn has slipped slightly but good margins for end-users will keep them hungry for bushels and help maintain some strength in basis.  We go from unseasonably warm to unseasonably cool in a matter of a couple days but the 90%+ chance for rain is worth it.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.