5/25/2023

May 25, 2023


The bears and bulls struggled to maintain direction today.  Corn and soybeans traded some nice ranges away from either size of unchanged, giving most a chance at positioning no matter their bias.  There is finally a small buzz going around the market with some concern about moisture conditions.  Funds had recently flipped short but have worked themselves closer to a neutral position as we are now one day out from an extended weekend.  The market has built a slightly bullish sentiment based solely on weather as domestic and export demand for corn continues to dwindle away.  Weekly export sales were within expectations with net cancellations for corn (75k tonnes) and wheat (45k tonnes) and net sales of 115k tonnes of soybeans.  There was a nice bump in bean meal sales with last week's sale announcement to Poland.  Marketing year to date, corn sales are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 132 million bushels versus 108 million last week.  Soybean sales are short by 100 million bushels versus 71 million last week.  Actual shipment pace for corn is short by 107 mln bushels and soybean shipments are 50 million bushels ahead but the gap is shrinking.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.