5/25/2022

May 25, 2022


5/25/2022
Sell pressure in corn and soybeans after major production areas edge closer to finishing planting and show moisture and HEAT in the forecast this weekend, which could result in a fast start to a delayed crop. Much like yesterday, though, corn and soybeans found willing buyers on the sharply lower trade following the morning break. We still finished in the red on the day but well off the daily lows. Corn appears it may have stopped the bleeding for now. If we are able to make a return trip to the $7.00 cash level for new crop, one should at least consider making a sale there. The USDA export wire has been quiet the past two mornings with no sale announcements. Weekly ethanol data showed output up 23,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bpd and stocks off 79,000 barrels to 23.71 mln bbls. Other headlines today featured Russia announcing that they would create a corridor in the Black Sea and allow ships exiting Ukraine with food safe travel. In exchange, Russia wants some sanctions lifted.

July and December 22 corn traded below their 50-day moving averages this week for the first time since mid-January but the funds were prepared to defend that area and buy. They are likely content with what they have liquidated and we could see a bounce into the long weekend.
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.