5/25/2022

May 25, 2022


5/25/2022
Sell pressure in corn and soybeans after major production areas edge closer to finishing planting and show moisture and HEAT in the forecast this weekend, which could result in a fast start to a delayed crop. Much like yesterday, though, corn and soybeans found willing buyers on the sharply lower trade following the morning break. We still finished in the red on the day but well off the daily lows. Corn appears it may have stopped the bleeding for now. If we are able to make a return trip to the $7.00 cash level for new crop, one should at least consider making a sale there. The USDA export wire has been quiet the past two mornings with no sale announcements. Weekly ethanol data showed output up 23,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bpd and stocks off 79,000 barrels to 23.71 mln bbls. Other headlines today featured Russia announcing that they would create a corridor in the Black Sea and allow ships exiting Ukraine with food safe travel. In exchange, Russia wants some sanctions lifted.

July and December 22 corn traded below their 50-day moving averages this week for the first time since mid-January but the funds were prepared to defend that area and buy. They are likely content with what they have liquidated and we could see a bounce into the long weekend.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.