5/24/2024
May 24, 2024
Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, May 27 for Memorial Day. The markets will be closed on Monday, also.
Up to six cent ranges visited either side of unchanged and saw corn finish fractional-1 cent higher. Soybeans continued on their short-term trend higher and closed within reach of 5-month highs. The market is trading weather and it is helping us correlate very well with seasonal trends. It's no secret that our seed genetics are extremely drought tolerant and the past few years have proven that we really don't need as much rain to make a crop that most thought. What these varieties are not bred for is wet conditions like we saw just 5 years ago. The market will be paying close attention to crop condition reports and additional precipitation in the forecasts for Iowa now that anywhere between 3-8 inches of rain has fallen across the state. We are within 30 days of traditional seasonal highs for corn futures. If weather materializes that does not threaten the crop, gaps on the chart will likely remain unfilled. If moisture continues to fall and crop loss and quality issues appear inevitable, it could be game-on in the markets. 15 out of the past 24 years, July corn futures have peaked in June. The saying goes "a rising tide lifts all ships" so as our July futures peak, typically our December futures find their seasonal high, as well.
Below:
Dec corn update: It appears we will have another opportunity at pricing new crop in the $4.40’s and HTA’s set in the 490’s and we highly recommend getting some 2024 crop marketing done in this area if you have not done so. Nearest points of resistance are the 200-day moving average at 492’6 and the gap at 503’0. We need to break out above the 507’0 level to ignite a bull market.
Up to six cent ranges visited either side of unchanged and saw corn finish fractional-1 cent higher. Soybeans continued on their short-term trend higher and closed within reach of 5-month highs. The market is trading weather and it is helping us correlate very well with seasonal trends. It's no secret that our seed genetics are extremely drought tolerant and the past few years have proven that we really don't need as much rain to make a crop that most thought. What these varieties are not bred for is wet conditions like we saw just 5 years ago. The market will be paying close attention to crop condition reports and additional precipitation in the forecasts for Iowa now that anywhere between 3-8 inches of rain has fallen across the state. We are within 30 days of traditional seasonal highs for corn futures. If weather materializes that does not threaten the crop, gaps on the chart will likely remain unfilled. If moisture continues to fall and crop loss and quality issues appear inevitable, it could be game-on in the markets. 15 out of the past 24 years, July corn futures have peaked in June. The saying goes "a rising tide lifts all ships" so as our July futures peak, typically our December futures find their seasonal high, as well.
Below:
Dec corn update: It appears we will have another opportunity at pricing new crop in the $4.40’s and HTA’s set in the 490’s and we highly recommend getting some 2024 crop marketing done in this area if you have not done so. Nearest points of resistance are the 200-day moving average at 492’6 and the gap at 503’0. We need to break out above the 507’0 level to ignite a bull market.