5/24/2023

May 24, 2023


After trading mixed overnight, it was looking like grains were going to rally on Wednesday but soybeans had fallen into lower trade by midday. July soybeans were able to pull it together late in the session for a 2 cent higher close on the day. Corn was able to hold a nice gain of 10 cents on the July contract but was only 2-3 cents higher from September on out. Weekly ethanol data showed production down 4,000 barrels/day to 983k bpd and stocks off 1.15 million barrels to 22.04 mln bbls. Both numbers were lower than expected. Corn use for ethanol is 40 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to meet the USDA target for the year.

With 5 consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows, July corn has made a nice push back above the 20-day moving average. Will be interesting to see how the market wants to trade around the 600’0 level if we are able to challenge it. Given our +0.15 basis, cash corn in the $6.15-6.20 range is a good short term target here.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.