5/22/2024

May 22, 2024


Soybeans traded in the range of 2-3 cents higher during the overnight portion and then rolled higher throughout the day. The November 24 contract traded within 8 cents of its high for the month before ending the day up 5 cents. Corn shook off the weakness in wheat and played follower to soybeans and bounced around from 1-5 cents higher throughout the day. Enthusiasm on the long side of trade appeared to fade in the final hour of Wednesday's session. For now, any bullish news and headlines are priced in and we may need something new to feed the bull if we want to see December corn and November soybeans take a run at closing their upside gaps on the charts. Beginning on May 1st, this move higher in soybeans was sparked by funds offsetting chunks of a large net short position after news of torrential flooding in Brazil, now that the market has had time to evaluate what the true damage was, it’s estimated the soybean losses are only around the 3 million tonne mark. Reminder: it was less than 2 weeks ago when the USDA printed a 2024/25 soy production forecast for Brazil of 169.0 mln tonnes.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.