Grain > Commentary > 5-22-2024

5/22/2024

May 22, 2024

Soybeans traded in the range of 2-3 cents higher during the overnight portion and then rolled higher throughout the day. The November 24 contract traded within 8 cents of its high for the month before ending the day up 5 cents. Corn shook off the weakness in wheat and played follower to soybeans and bounced around from 1-5 cents higher throughout the day. Enthusiasm on the long side of trade appeared to fade in the final hour of Wednesday's session. For now, any bullish news and headlines are priced in and we may need something new to feed the bull if we want to see December corn and November soybeans take a run at closing their upside gaps on the charts. Beginning on May 1st, this move higher in soybeans was sparked by funds offsetting chunks of a large net short position after news of torrential flooding in Brazil, now that the market has had time to evaluate what the true damage was, it’s estimated the soybean losses are only around the 3 million tonne mark. Reminder: it was less than 2 weeks ago when the USDA printed a 2024/25 soy production forecast for Brazil of 169.0 mln tonnes.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.