5/22/2023

May 22, 2023


Corn and soybeans shoot higher to begin the week.  On the charts, July corn was able to trade through Friday's high and closed the day near that mark.  Dec corn, July soybeans, and Nov soybeans fell just short of taking out Friday's highs.  It would have made for a nice technical indicator that a short-term low had been made.  Regardless, we were able to stay well above Friday's lows for the entirety of the session.  After setting fresh lows for the move, wheat completed a decent recovery through the day.  Extended weather models and outlooks are showing an abnormally dry June and several comparisons to 2012 are being made.  On the surface, drought areas are beginning the growing season in worse shape than 2012.  There is very little, if any, weather premium priced into the market so if these models and forecasts hold, we could see a significant futures rally going into summer.  Weekly export inspections showed a nice week for corn shipments at 1.323 million tonnes.  Soybean inspections were a 7-year low for the week at 155k tonnes.  For the marketing year, corn inspection pace is short of the USDA target by 107 million bushels, soybeans short by 50 million bushels.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.