May 21, 2024

The USDA's weekly crop update took away any chance for corn and soybeans to add to Monday's big gains. It was no secret that a solid window for planting had opened up over the past week to 10 days and some significant planting progress had been made. The USDA reported plantings at 70% complete for corn and 52% for soybeans, above what trade had been expecting. We really shouldn't be surprised at the farmer's ability to seed ground quickly considering 60+ foot units traveling near 10 mph while planting are becoming increasingly more common. Anything bullish concerning a planting delay is now off the table. What is left to debate is what the ground conditions were like when that seed went in the ground and what potential there is for any prevent-plant acres but we will probably need to get into June before we can start pricing in a risk premium of any type for those concerns. For now, keep price targets in place: 100% sold on old crop corn at 477-482 July futures, new crop corn or Dec HTAs 486-488. Work at getting over 50% sold on new crop corn by mid-June. These targets are in place considering current fundamentals and will re-evaluate if necessary.

Soybeans made a friendly move yesterday, working on a bull pennant breakout. For new crop soybeans, work sell orders at 1225 futures for HTAs or $11.50 delivered if you did not do so when those filled 2 weeks ago. After that, target the middle of our gap at 1240 futures.

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