5/21/2021

May 21, 2021


5/21/2021
Markets were lower overnight and finish the week in the red quietly.  We started this morning with a fair amount of volatility but, by mid-day, trade was being conducted in an orderly fashion.  Corn and soybeans tried to trade higher for a portion of the day but it was short lived.  Demand for corn remains incredibly strong but, with some parts of the growing regions getting rain, our ability to rally remains limited.  More US corn production estimates showing large increases in acres over the USDA's planting intentions report is also hanging over the market, with one standout penciling in 96 million acres.  We may be establishing some range trade as we get closer to a new month, with the futures trying to catch a foot-hold at the price levels we were trading prior to May.  No USDA flash sale this morning.  Weekly closes: July corn 15'6 higher, Dec corn 3'6 higher, July beans 60 lower, Nov beans 40'2 lower.  Open interest in the front month continues to decline in both corn and soybeans.  China's new crop corn shopping spree may be more of a hedge against a possible crop failure in Brazil.  Continue to be diligent in your new crop marketings, smaller profit margins are still profit.  Some of the heat has been removed from the weekend forecast and we should return to average temps by the middle of next week.  Rain will be more than welcomed after temperatures in the upper-80's.  Have a great weekend!

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.