5/21/2021

May 21, 2021


5/21/2021
Markets were lower overnight and finish the week in the red quietly.  We started this morning with a fair amount of volatility but, by mid-day, trade was being conducted in an orderly fashion.  Corn and soybeans tried to trade higher for a portion of the day but it was short lived.  Demand for corn remains incredibly strong but, with some parts of the growing regions getting rain, our ability to rally remains limited.  More US corn production estimates showing large increases in acres over the USDA's planting intentions report is also hanging over the market, with one standout penciling in 96 million acres.  We may be establishing some range trade as we get closer to a new month, with the futures trying to catch a foot-hold at the price levels we were trading prior to May.  No USDA flash sale this morning.  Weekly closes: July corn 15'6 higher, Dec corn 3'6 higher, July beans 60 lower, Nov beans 40'2 lower.  Open interest in the front month continues to decline in both corn and soybeans.  China's new crop corn shopping spree may be more of a hedge against a possible crop failure in Brazil.  Continue to be diligent in your new crop marketings, smaller profit margins are still profit.  Some of the heat has been removed from the weekend forecast and we should return to average temps by the middle of next week.  Rain will be more than welcomed after temperatures in the upper-80's.  Have a great weekend!

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.