5/20/2021

May 20, 2021


5/20/2021
Corn and soybeans were mostly higher overnight and for a majority of the day session.  Corn was able to keep part of its gains into the close, with new crop finishing 13 higher, but beans faded early in the final hour, closing 2-5 cents into the red.  It appears we have found some support levels in corn to work off of.  With the glut of the excess spec money liquidated out, we can now get back to keying direction off of fundamentals.  The demand outlook for corn continues to look positive with end-users posting good margins, numbers that are sure to improve with a 70 cent pull back in the futures.  USDA reported another flash sale of 1.224 mln tonnes of new crop corn to China this morning, adding another 48.1 mln bushels to their 21/22 marketing year total.  Soybeans continue to slip away from their highs with the July contract settling $1.34 below its contract high set back on May 12.  Soybean basis has been weakening in that same time frame but expect demand to pick up with the raw product becoming cheaper.  Weekly export sales were headlined by corn posting 4.062 mln tonnes of new crop sold.  Old crop corn had net sales of 278k tonnes and old crop beans offered some upside to the market with 84k tonnes sold.  Recent rain falls will keep the market on guard as some dry areas continue to pick up moisture.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.