5/20/2021

May 20, 2021


5/20/2021
Corn and soybeans were mostly higher overnight and for a majority of the day session.  Corn was able to keep part of its gains into the close, with new crop finishing 13 higher, but beans faded early in the final hour, closing 2-5 cents into the red.  It appears we have found some support levels in corn to work off of.  With the glut of the excess spec money liquidated out, we can now get back to keying direction off of fundamentals.  The demand outlook for corn continues to look positive with end-users posting good margins, numbers that are sure to improve with a 70 cent pull back in the futures.  USDA reported another flash sale of 1.224 mln tonnes of new crop corn to China this morning, adding another 48.1 mln bushels to their 21/22 marketing year total.  Soybeans continue to slip away from their highs with the July contract settling $1.34 below its contract high set back on May 12.  Soybean basis has been weakening in that same time frame but expect demand to pick up with the raw product becoming cheaper.  Weekly export sales were headlined by corn posting 4.062 mln tonnes of new crop sold.  Old crop corn had net sales of 278k tonnes and old crop beans offered some upside to the market with 84k tonnes sold.  Recent rain falls will keep the market on guard as some dry areas continue to pick up moisture.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.