May 02, 2024

After a stagnant April, the market has been needing a big headline to make a move and we finally got it today, albeit, slightly confusing. Trade has been monitoring Brazil weather where some staunch dryness had set in but now the southern half of the country is at a stand-still following some huge rainfalls with more expected. Early reports indicate significant crop damage and loss. We've had so much bearishness baked into the market since the beginning of the year that included huge short positions in managed money and the USDA showing large ending stocks and slow exports. Argentina and Brazil have not been shy about lowering their own production estimates but the USDA is still dragging behind. Corn export and ethanol use numbers still need a refresh on the balance sheet. The markets did nothing to help the funds make money the past two months and we just needed something to trigger them to offset a chunk of positions and we got it today. The door is now open for the market bulls. Targets hit today: $4.20 cash corn, $4.25 new crop corn, and $11.00 cash soybeans. Still looking for $12.20-12.40 Nov for an HTA or $11.50-11.70 new crop soybeans. New targets for new crop corn: HTA's between $4.96-5.00 Dec or $4.44/bu delivered. Cash corn: Fill cash at $4.77 Jul futures.

Soybeans with a huge leg higher today and a big momentum day for corn and soybeans. November soybeans took out the November downtrend line but found some pressure at the 100-day moving average. November touching the 100-day average also appeared to cap the move in beans for the day. There is still some breathing room above current levels on our July contracts so good potential for some follow-through buying tomorrow to end the week.

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