5/2/2024

May 02, 2024


After a stagnant April, the market has been needing a big headline to make a move and we finally got it today, albeit, slightly confusing. Trade has been monitoring Brazil weather where some staunch dryness had set in but now the southern half of the country is at a stand-still following some huge rainfalls with more expected. Early reports indicate significant crop damage and loss. We've had so much bearishness baked into the market since the beginning of the year that included huge short positions in managed money and the USDA showing large ending stocks and slow exports. Argentina and Brazil have not been shy about lowering their own production estimates but the USDA is still dragging behind. Corn export and ethanol use numbers still need a refresh on the balance sheet. The markets did nothing to help the funds make money the past two months and we just needed something to trigger them to offset a chunk of positions and we got it today. The door is now open for the market bulls. Targets hit today: $4.20 cash corn, $4.25 new crop corn, and $11.00 cash soybeans. Still looking for $12.20-12.40 Nov for an HTA or $11.50-11.70 new crop soybeans. New targets for new crop corn: HTA's between $4.96-5.00 Dec or $4.44/bu delivered. Cash corn: Fill cash at $4.77 Jul futures.

Soybeans with a huge leg higher today and a big momentum day for corn and soybeans. November soybeans took out the November downtrend line but found some pressure at the 100-day moving average. November touching the 100-day average also appeared to cap the move in beans for the day. There is still some breathing room above current levels on our July contracts so good potential for some follow-through buying tomorrow to end the week.

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...