5/2/2023

May 02, 2023


Tuesday started off with some solid higher trade with corn up to 6 cents higher and soybeans 13 cents higher but grains fell lower, feeling the effects of macro market selling. Most commodities were down fairly hard on the day and Wall Street was not helping at all. The DOW traded as much as 600 points lower, the NASDAQ -180 points, and the S&P -75 points before slowly improving throughout the rest of the day. Planting progress also continues to be progressively faster as the days pass with field work steadily moving north. Like we mentioned yesterday, this is seasonally a poor time for anyone bullish unless we have issues with planting pace. This week, the USDA reported corn planting progress to 26% complete (27% trade, 14% week ago, 13% year ago, 26% average) and soybean plantings at 19% complete (17% trade, 9% week ago, 7% year ago, 11% avg). Weather forecasts continue to be encouraging for a solid window of field work, applying pressure to the market. There's still time for some historically good prices. If we can attain $6.25-6.50 cash corn and $14.50 cash soybeans, be ready to grab those values.

July soybeans have completed two key reversals in the past 3 trading days, one higher and one lower.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.