May 02, 2022

A risk premium for planting delay was priced into our grains over the past couple weeks but forecasts are improving and corn is being planted in several areas of the grain belt.  Simple reason for today's move: planting is delayed until it’s not.  The dollar index is also pushing 5-year highs which makes exports unattractive and is usually seen as negative for commodities.  Today saw major risk off in most commodities after corn spent last week flirting with record highs.  July corn traded 23 lower on the day but recovered nicely into the close.  July soybean meal finished last week below a major support level of 435.0, was down hard overnight and recovered throughout the day, trying to find support near the 100-day moving average.  Weekly export inspections for corn and soybeans were within range with 1.684 mln tonnes of corn and 601k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Extremely parched areas of Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, western Kansas and Nebraska up into South Dakota saw extremely good rains over the weekend that included totals of 4"+ of rain.  After a hard down day, I expect a bit a bounce on the overnight with a little kick back higher from this afternoon's crop progress report but how long it lasts is anyone's guess.

Near record highs for corn and near 5-year highs on the dollar index.  Not exactly a combination that is attractive for export business.

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