5/19/2021

May 19, 2021


5/19/2021
Broad selling across several different commodity and exchange spaces with everything from grains, hogs, energy, stocks, and more seeing some marks deep in the red today.  We talk about corn and soybeans being over or under-bought often on a short-term basis but, in general, these markets have been on a bull run for most of the past 10 months and are over bought on the long term.  There's also been a lack of bullish news in corn and soybeans, as of late.  Today's price action in corn is promising for those looking for a bounce back to 700 level where we saw a lot of liquidation get absorbed with July finishing unchanged.  Also offering some support late in the session is more cuts to the Brazil corn crop by private analyst Agroconsult setting the mark at 91.1 mln tonnes, a 15% cut due to drought.  As of May 12, Brazil's CONAB still estimated 106.4 mln tonnes and the USDA estimated 102 mln tonnes of Brazil corn production.  This could be why we continue to see China come forward for new crop corn purchases with the USDA announcing another 1.36 mln tonnes to China for the 21/22 marketing year.  They also announced 142,500 tonnes of new crop soybeans to Mexico.  Soybeans continue downward in search of support and likely just need to find a level that's competitive on a global scale.  Continue to consider making old and new crop sales as we are still at historically good delivered prices.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.