May 19, 2021

Broad selling across several different commodity and exchange spaces with everything from grains, hogs, energy, stocks, and more seeing some marks deep in the red today.  We talk about corn and soybeans being over or under-bought often on a short-term basis but, in general, these markets have been on a bull run for most of the past 10 months and are over bought on the long term.  There's also been a lack of bullish news in corn and soybeans, as of late.  Today's price action in corn is promising for those looking for a bounce back to 700 level where we saw a lot of liquidation get absorbed with July finishing unchanged.  Also offering some support late in the session is more cuts to the Brazil corn crop by private analyst Agroconsult setting the mark at 91.1 mln tonnes, a 15% cut due to drought.  As of May 12, Brazil's CONAB still estimated 106.4 mln tonnes and the USDA estimated 102 mln tonnes of Brazil corn production.  This could be why we continue to see China come forward for new crop corn purchases with the USDA announcing another 1.36 mln tonnes to China for the 21/22 marketing year.  They also announced 142,500 tonnes of new crop soybeans to Mexico.  Soybeans continue downward in search of support and likely just need to find a level that's competitive on a global scale.  Continue to consider making old and new crop sales as we are still at historically good delivered prices.

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