Grain > Commentary > 5-18-2022

5/18/2022

May 18, 2022

5/18/2022
Wide-spread, heavy selling took over the commodity and stock market spaces today.  Wheat led the sell-off overnight, getting additional momentum early this morning after SovEcon raised its wheat production forecast by 1.2 million tonnes to a record high of 88.6 million tonnes and acknowledging potential to increase that number further.  Soybeans were able to sustain some slightly higher trade following the morning break after the USDA announced the export sale of 229,200 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown (10,200 tonnes in 2021/22, 219,000 tonnes in 2022/23).  This sale was rumored to be the reason for the strength in soybeans yesterday.  The soy complex was sharply lower by midday after being sold off with the other commodities.  December 22 corn set its current contract high on Monday following fresh length in funds of around 20,000 positions.  With no follow-through buying behind them, liquidation was inevitable.  Weekly ethanol figures showed output unchanged at 991,000 barrels/day and stocks off 349,000 barrels to 23.79 mln bbls.  Weather outlooks have changed to become a little more wet bias but it appears that the question is not when it will rain but where.

Potential head and shoulders pattern on July soybean meal.
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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.