Grain > Commentary > 5-18-2022

5/18/2022

May 18, 2022

5/18/2022
Wide-spread, heavy selling took over the commodity and stock market spaces today.  Wheat led the sell-off overnight, getting additional momentum early this morning after SovEcon raised its wheat production forecast by 1.2 million tonnes to a record high of 88.6 million tonnes and acknowledging potential to increase that number further.  Soybeans were able to sustain some slightly higher trade following the morning break after the USDA announced the export sale of 229,200 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown (10,200 tonnes in 2021/22, 219,000 tonnes in 2022/23).  This sale was rumored to be the reason for the strength in soybeans yesterday.  The soy complex was sharply lower by midday after being sold off with the other commodities.  December 22 corn set its current contract high on Monday following fresh length in funds of around 20,000 positions.  With no follow-through buying behind them, liquidation was inevitable.  Weekly ethanol figures showed output unchanged at 991,000 barrels/day and stocks off 349,000 barrels to 23.79 mln bbls.  Weather outlooks have changed to become a little more wet bias but it appears that the question is not when it will rain but where.

Potential head and shoulders pattern on July soybean meal.
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8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
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5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.