5/17/2022

May 17, 2022


5/17/2022
Corn and soybeans were both down sharply to start last night.  The price action was definitely more technical than fundamental with the gap on the July soybean chart being filled and trade reversing higher.  Corn managed to trade higher briefly following the morning break but was held down in the red for close to the entirety of the day.  No new high in December corn today after setting fresh contract highs on Friday and Monday.  The weekly crop progress report was right on target with the trade averages for corn and soybeans.  Nationally, corn is viewed as 49% planted and soybeans 30% There were huge gains in the "I" states, highlighted by Iowa planting 43% of its corn and 27% of its soybeans last week.  Illinois saw 40% gain in corn plantings and 27% advancement in soybeans.  By the time we see these numbers, planters have been rolling for an additional 24 hours and there is that much more corn and soybeans in the ground.  It looks like mother nature may be giving us an opportunity over the next 7 days.  Most of the rain has vanished from the forecast for today and Thursday and we may finally have that window for field work we desperately need.  Weather models are calling for a warm, dry June which means potential is still there for a good crop this year.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.