5/17/2022

May 17, 2022


5/17/2022
Corn and soybeans were both down sharply to start last night.  The price action was definitely more technical than fundamental with the gap on the July soybean chart being filled and trade reversing higher.  Corn managed to trade higher briefly following the morning break but was held down in the red for close to the entirety of the day.  No new high in December corn today after setting fresh contract highs on Friday and Monday.  The weekly crop progress report was right on target with the trade averages for corn and soybeans.  Nationally, corn is viewed as 49% planted and soybeans 30% There were huge gains in the "I" states, highlighted by Iowa planting 43% of its corn and 27% of its soybeans last week.  Illinois saw 40% gain in corn plantings and 27% advancement in soybeans.  By the time we see these numbers, planters have been rolling for an additional 24 hours and there is that much more corn and soybeans in the ground.  It looks like mother nature may be giving us an opportunity over the next 7 days.  Most of the rain has vanished from the forecast for today and Thursday and we may finally have that window for field work we desperately need.  Weather models are calling for a warm, dry June which means potential is still there for a good crop this year.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.