5/17/2022

May 17, 2022


5/17/2022
Corn and soybeans were both down sharply to start last night.  The price action was definitely more technical than fundamental with the gap on the July soybean chart being filled and trade reversing higher.  Corn managed to trade higher briefly following the morning break but was held down in the red for close to the entirety of the day.  No new high in December corn today after setting fresh contract highs on Friday and Monday.  The weekly crop progress report was right on target with the trade averages for corn and soybeans.  Nationally, corn is viewed as 49% planted and soybeans 30% There were huge gains in the "I" states, highlighted by Iowa planting 43% of its corn and 27% of its soybeans last week.  Illinois saw 40% gain in corn plantings and 27% advancement in soybeans.  By the time we see these numbers, planters have been rolling for an additional 24 hours and there is that much more corn and soybeans in the ground.  It looks like mother nature may be giving us an opportunity over the next 7 days.  Most of the rain has vanished from the forecast for today and Thursday and we may finally have that window for field work we desperately need.  Weather models are calling for a warm, dry June which means potential is still there for a good crop this year.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.