5/17/2022

May 17, 2022


5/17/2022
Corn and soybeans were both down sharply to start last night.  The price action was definitely more technical than fundamental with the gap on the July soybean chart being filled and trade reversing higher.  Corn managed to trade higher briefly following the morning break but was held down in the red for close to the entirety of the day.  No new high in December corn today after setting fresh contract highs on Friday and Monday.  The weekly crop progress report was right on target with the trade averages for corn and soybeans.  Nationally, corn is viewed as 49% planted and soybeans 30% There were huge gains in the "I" states, highlighted by Iowa planting 43% of its corn and 27% of its soybeans last week.  Illinois saw 40% gain in corn plantings and 27% advancement in soybeans.  By the time we see these numbers, planters have been rolling for an additional 24 hours and there is that much more corn and soybeans in the ground.  It looks like mother nature may be giving us an opportunity over the next 7 days.  Most of the rain has vanished from the forecast for today and Thursday and we may finally have that window for field work we desperately need.  Weather models are calling for a warm, dry June which means potential is still there for a good crop this year.

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.