5/17/2021

May 17, 2021


5/17/2021
Corn and soybeans both finish Monday mixed with the front month firming after good weekly export inspection figures.  Corn inspections were seen at 1.892 mln tonnes last week, towards the upper end of expectations.  Soybeans and wheat inspections both out performed estimates with 309k tonnes of beans and 659k tonnes of wheat inspected.  The USDA had more 8am sales announcements of new crop corn this morning with 1.7mln tonnes to China and 128k tonnes to Mexico.  That brings the total US new crop corn sales to china to 268 mln bushels, that we know of.  April soybean crush numbers came in well below the trade estimates, with 160.31 mln bushels crushed vs the average estimate of 168.74 mln bu.  Throughout Thursday and Friday last week, funds liquidated an estimated 75,000 corn and 43,000 soybean positions.  The market was feeling some pressure from what is expected to be another vault forward in planting progress in this week's crop progress report and the increasing chances of good precipitation across the corn belt over the next two weeks.  New crop values may struggle to achieve big gains in the short term, especially corn, with many analysts feeling that the USDA may have undershot the corn acreage number by 3 to 4 million acres.  Locally, our forecast looks like we're having a short spring and heading straight for summer. 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.