Grain > Commentary > 5-16-2023

5/16/2023

May 16, 2023

Heavy selling across commodities and stocks today resulted in sharp losses in corn and soybeans. The USDA's weekly crop progress report showed substantial gains in planting and numbers well ahead of 5-year averages. Corn planting is estimated at 65% complete (68% trade, 49% week ago, 45% year ago, 59% avg). Soybean planting is estimated at 49% complete (51% trade, 35% week ago, 27% year ago, 36% avg). The pressure from planting progress is likely compounding on the market when we take a look at areas that are the furthest ahead of their averages. Planting paces in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa are blowing ahead of the rest of the crop growing region. North Dakota is the only the state significantly behind its 5-year average pace. The 2023 new crop contract months traded their lowest marks in 17 months today. We are now testing support on Dec 23 corn at 500'0 and Nov 23 soybeans at 1200'0.

With the corn balance sheet looking it will be going from tight to large, we should get some nice opportunities to roll hedges forward. The Dec:Mar corn spread closed at a 10 cent carry and should continue to weaken going forward. Rolling at 11-12 cents would be right in line with the historical average and 13-14 cents would be a premium.
corn-chart.png

Read More News

7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.