Grain > Commentary > 5-16-2023

5/16/2023

May 16, 2023

Heavy selling across commodities and stocks today resulted in sharp losses in corn and soybeans. The USDA's weekly crop progress report showed substantial gains in planting and numbers well ahead of 5-year averages. Corn planting is estimated at 65% complete (68% trade, 49% week ago, 45% year ago, 59% avg). Soybean planting is estimated at 49% complete (51% trade, 35% week ago, 27% year ago, 36% avg). The pressure from planting progress is likely compounding on the market when we take a look at areas that are the furthest ahead of their averages. Planting paces in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa are blowing ahead of the rest of the crop growing region. North Dakota is the only the state significantly behind its 5-year average pace. The 2023 new crop contract months traded their lowest marks in 17 months today. We are now testing support on Dec 23 corn at 500'0 and Nov 23 soybeans at 1200'0.

With the corn balance sheet looking it will be going from tight to large, we should get some nice opportunities to roll hedges forward. The Dec:Mar corn spread closed at a 10 cent carry and should continue to weaken going forward. Rolling at 11-12 cents would be right in line with the historical average and 13-14 cents would be a premium.
corn-chart.png

Read More News

2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.