5/14/2021

May 14, 2021


5/14/2021
Corn liquidation continued to finish the week with the past 10 days of trade effectively canceling each other out.  Beans remain well supported and it seems the realization is coming to light that we are actually very tight on soybean stocks and it's likely that bean acres have been lost in favor of increased corn planting this year.  Availability of corn may become dependent by area but basis will adjust to reflect that.  Overnight trade showed strength in the corn, with cash coming back within an arm's reach of $7.00.  This morning also offered supportive news, with the USDA announcing a massive new crop corn sale of 53.4 mln bu to China and the Mississippi River was reopened with no restrictions to traffic but both these headlines went largely ignored.  What we saw the past two weeks was the effect of the new spec position and daily price limit increases that are now in place.  Funds and speculators need markets to move (up or down).  What this week did provide us is a reality check on what needs to be done: sell your crop at profitable levels.  We are still at cash price levels that are, historically speaking, extremely high.  To put new crop in perspective, December corn futures have spent less than 9% of the time at, or above, today's close of 542'6.  November beans have been 1400, or higher, only 2% of the time.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.