5/13/2021

May 13, 2021


5/13/2021
The market gives us our first taste of the new daily price limit in corn with the Jul 21-Sep 22 contracts trading 40 lower on the day.  Jul 21 finished limit lower with the balance of those months able to muster enough buying interest to close 2-5 cents off the limit.  Funds and spec money started dumping their positions after the report dropped yesterday and liquidation carried over into today.  Our report told us that we won't be running out of corn or beans anytime soon but soybean inventory is still very tight.  Will be interesting to see if this has an effect on basis.  Weekly export sales for old crop were light with corn posting 113 mln tonnes of net cancellations and beans at 94 mln tonnes sold.  New crop boasted 2.084 mln tonnes of corn sales.  China has been actively buying new crop corn and cancelling old crop purchases, with the USDA announcing a sale of 680k tonnes sold to China for the 21/22 marketing year.  I expect more of this in the future with US new crop at a steep discount to old crop and we may see carryout increase before we get our final ending stocks number.  Marketing year sales to date for corn are still 206 mln bu ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA target and shipments are 104 mln bu ahead of the pace needed.  Need to keep a sharp eye on Brazil as things do not add up down there.  A drought stricken first crop of corn, an ever-increasing bean crop, and a sudden drought stressed second crop of corn doesn't make sense.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.