5/12/2023

May 12, 2023


A largely negative WASDE report. USDA lowered 22/23 corn exports by 75 million bushels, increasing corn ending stocks to 1.417 bln bu. A couple things that stick out on the 2023/24 corn balance sheet: A 375 million bushel increase in feed use and an average farm price forecasted at $4.80/bu. On the soybean side, a small 5 million bu. bump in imports to take our 22/23 ending stocks to 215 mln bushels. For the 23/24 soybean balance sheet, it was pretty much plug and play. Steady demand numbers with a large increase in ending stocks from a bigger crop.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.