5/12/2022

May 12, 2022


5/12/2022
The USDA announced the sale of 612k tonnes of corn to China with 68k tonnes delivered in 2021/22 and 544k tonnes delivered in 2022/23. Weekly export sales for corn were well under target with 193k tonnes in sales vs 350k tonne minimum estimate. Soybean sales were on the low end but within range at 144k tonnes. The monthly update for Brazil's crop production showed increases in both soy and corn. Barring any sort of disaster, the world's current soybean supply is ample. Soybean meal values continue to drop, now trading back under $400/ton, and soybean oil is at the mercy of crude oil. The pressure to own soybeans (physical or on paper) is all but gone.

-Supply and demand for old crop corn was unchanged this month. The eye opener here is the USDA dropping their yield from 181.0 in the planting intentions.
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-A 25 million bushel cut in soybean ending stocks with an increase in exports. No changes for the 2022 crop from the planting intentions report.
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.