May 12, 2021

Daily ranges of thirty cents in corn and fifty cents in July beans came and went with the big USDA crop reports today.  The WASDE report was close to trade estimates, with the corn carryout number pegged at 1.257 bln bushels (-.095 from March) and soybean carryout was left unchanged at 120 mln bushels.  About 15 minutes prior to the report release, July corn was +1'4, Dec corn was -6'0, July soybeans were +39'4, and Nov soybeans were +13'0 cents.  They finish today -7'4, -18'2, +27'6, +12'2.  The USDA left corn and soybean acres unchanged from the March planting intentions report but plugged in some large trend-line yields and smaller total use figures that may have taken the upward momentum out of the market in the short term.  Is it possible we put in the highs?  Yes, that's is real possibility that needs to be considered.  There is increasing chances of precipitation across the corn belt for the next 7-14 days.  Trade is watching the weather closely, if no significant rain develops, there's the chance we take a run at the current contract highs.  If good amounts of rain fall, expect to see more risk removed from fund and spec positions and attention immediately turn to the situation in Brazil where the corn crop continues to suffer from a severe lack of moisture.  Excellent underlying support in beans remains intact but there is a need to tread lightly in the corn market.

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