5/11/2023

May 11, 2023


Pressure from several different angles held corn in the red for the entire session on Thursday.  Russia had been the most stubborn, yet, about renewing the Black Sea corridor until today when they finally gave the green light to another 60-day window.  Brazil's CONAB increased their production estimates for this year to 154.8 mln tonnes of soybeans (125.5 mln last year) and 125.5 mln tonnes of corn (113.1 mln last year).  Some nice rains have also been observed this week in areas that have completed corn planting that include eastern Kansas, southern Nebraska, and most of Iowa and Illinois.  Weekly export sales were mostly within expectations but lent no help to the market today, either.  Wheat missed low at 26k tonnes of sales while corn and soybeans basically did just enough to avoid negative sales with 257k of corn and 62k tonnes of soybeans sold.  This did not include the corn cancellation announcement from earlier this week.  All this combined with an unrelenting planting pace held the market down today.  Tomorrow, the USDA will give us our May WASDE numbers but we may have already priced a negative report into the market, at this point.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.