5/11/2023

May 11, 2023


Pressure from several different angles held corn in the red for the entire session on Thursday.  Russia had been the most stubborn, yet, about renewing the Black Sea corridor until today when they finally gave the green light to another 60-day window.  Brazil's CONAB increased their production estimates for this year to 154.8 mln tonnes of soybeans (125.5 mln last year) and 125.5 mln tonnes of corn (113.1 mln last year).  Some nice rains have also been observed this week in areas that have completed corn planting that include eastern Kansas, southern Nebraska, and most of Iowa and Illinois.  Weekly export sales were mostly within expectations but lent no help to the market today, either.  Wheat missed low at 26k tonnes of sales while corn and soybeans basically did just enough to avoid negative sales with 257k of corn and 62k tonnes of soybeans sold.  This did not include the corn cancellation announcement from earlier this week.  All this combined with an unrelenting planting pace held the market down today.  Tomorrow, the USDA will give us our May WASDE numbers but we may have already priced a negative report into the market, at this point.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.