5/10/2024

The USDA gave trade a report that was friendly for corn to work with.  Despite a higher finish, the report was quite negative for soybeans with the USDA plugging in a 445 mln bu carryout for the 2024/25 crop year.  What maybe got brushed over quicker than it should have is the estimated 169.0 mln tonne soy production for Brazil next year.  It was just a few years ago the market was screaming lower on a 130-135.0 mln tonnes expected to be produced in Brazil.  The USDA finally increased corn exports and ethanol use for this year that they've been dragging their feet with.  This lowered the forecasted 23/24 corn ending stocks 100 mln bu to 2.022 bln bu.  Regardless of what the weather says in the U.S., there was an additional 2-3 million acres of crop ground left off of our March planting intentions report and I expect the June acres report to be unfriendly for corn.  Work at getting to 100% sold on old crop and over half-sold on new crop (harvest delivery and HTAs) by mid-June while the market moves towards a seasonal high.  The planting window looks wide open across the U.S. and that seed will go from the bag into the ground fast.  We may be able to melt away a touch more of the old crop ending stocks but I'm not sure the USDA is willing to print a sub-2.0 number.